Consistently Inconsistent
We're reaching the point of the season where teams are showing what they are (or aren't). Can Kansas string together enough wins to make a run in the tournament?
This college basketball season has produced more variability than past seasons, showing an increased level of parity in the sport. This is highlighted by the fact that through February 13th, top ten teams were 32-35 in road games against unranked teams, a winning percentage of 47.8 percent. The average winning percentage for top ten games in the past is over 70 percent. The 2023-24 Kansas men’s basketball team has been the epitome of the variability that we’ve seen this season.
For the third straight time, Kansas has lost their midweek game after an impressive weekend win. Those wins have come over Houston, Baylor, and Texas (not a great team, but a 19 point victory over a probable NCAA Tournament team counts as a good win), and the losses have come to Texas Tech, Kansas State, and BYU. While at least two of those teams should make the tournament, Kansas’ inability to follow up impressive wins with any form of win is concerning. With quick turnarounds in the NCAA Tournament due to schedule, the ability to play at a high-level in back-to-back games is necessary to making a deep run in the tournament. This team has shown the ability to play at a high level, but they’ve rarely done so in back-to-back games, much less in back-to-back games with a short rest. That’s a flashing “Warning” signal for a team and fanbase whose expectation is a Final Four appearance, if not a National Championship.
The BYU game was disappointing mostly because it felt as though Kansas was in a great position to win before falling apart at the end. The offense struggled to find rhythm, due largely in part to BYU having a high foul count so early in the second half. Hunter Dickinson struggled from the free throw line, going 6/15, which was abnormal for him. No one played particularly well in the second half offensively, but my biggest issue was the lack of attacking the BYU players in foul trouble. Dallin Hall, Noah Waterman, and Trevin Knell played the final nine minutes of the game with four fouls. Kansas’ refusal to attack them in a game where the referees were calling soft fouls felt like a missed opportunity. At the 8:20 mark, the score was 51-50 Kansas. Here’s the breakdown for what those three players contributed from that point going forward:
Hall had 13 points and two assists. He was the leader on the offensive end, and not finding a way to get him his fifth foul was crucial to BYU’s comeback. He spend most of the final ten minutes defending Johnny Furphy who didn’t look to attack him off the dribble.
Waterman had four points, but hit the 3 that put BYU up 66-63 right after Nick Timberlake had tied the game. He has been one of BYU’s most consistent players this season and constantly stretches defenses, putting pressure on the on-ball defender to stay in front of their man.
Knell hit a 3 on a fast break to pull BYU within 58-57. While he didn’t contribute on the offensive end, Knell is one of BYU’s most versatile defenders and helped shut down Kansas’ offense when on the court.
BYU would score 26 points in the final 8:20 of the game. Those three players combined for 20 of the points, with Hall being the main catalyst. Specifically, Kansas being unable to find a way to get Hall his fifth foul in over ten minutes of game time might have cost them the game.
The shot charts below show how each team attacked during the game, with BYU only having three true attempts that weren’t near the basket or a 3 point field goal. This is the ideal shot disbursement. Kansas, on the other hand, took around ten of these shots. When they are falling, the offense can function. When they aren’t, the offense looks like they don’t have anyone to trust. As teams continue to focus on shutting down Dickinson and forcing other players to beat them, the other players have to be able to make shots. Without McCullar, there’s additional pressure on Harris and Adams to perform at a high level on the offensive. Unfortunately, they were unable to against BYU.
While the offense was the main reason Kansas was unable to hold onto their lead in the second half, there were questionable decisions made on the defensive end that helped BYU jumpstart their comeback. The main one was leaving shooters to help double-team a post player inside. BYU used screens to get smaller players (usually Jamari McDowell or Nick Timberlake) matched up with their centers (most notably Fousseyni Traore). This led to a player (usually KJ Adams) stepping off his man to help the smaller guards. Against most teams this is exactly what you would want from the help defender. Against BYU, it’s a recipe for disaster.
BYU currently ranks fourth in the country in 3 point field goal attempts per field goal attempts at 50.6 percent. In other words, over half of BYU’s shots on any given night are 3 point field goals. They also rank rank fifth in the country in assists per field goals made at 63.2 percent, meaning almost 2/3 of their baskets come off assists. Their offense is designed to create mismatches in the paint. This results in help defenders coming off their men, which leads to open shots from 3. There are two ways to defend this:
Have your help defender stay closer to the paint and limit the inside touches. This leads to more open 3 point opportunities.
Have your help defender stay closer to his man, giving the offense a mismatch in the paint.
In the second half last night, Kansas was helping too far off of shooters in these situations, which helped spark BYU’s comeback. It may seem like this is an opinion based on hindsight, but while the game was happening it felt like Kansas giving BYU open opportunities from 3 while they were struggling was the wrong decision. Kansas isn’t a team that can match a team like BYU from the outside. If they give up two points, it’s easier to match that on the offensive end. It’s tough to fault the Kansas players for trying to limit easy shots around the rim in a normal situation, but BYU doesn’t warrant the same defensive strategy most teams would. If they heat up from behind the arc, they are almost impossible to slow down. Because of this, giving up the bucket to BYU’s post players felt like the lesser of two evils. The video below highlights three times that BYU took advantage of a defender helping off too far from a shooter in Tuesday’s game.
In the first clip, Dickinson doesn’t notice that Dajuan Harris and Adams switched leaving Adams as the defender in the paint. Adams is strong enough to challenge post players, and there was no need to help off of BYU’s leading scorer on this possession. This was the first 3 that BYU made in the second half, coming over six minutes into the half.
In the second clip, Timberlake helped off a 38.0 percent three point shooter in the corner. Waterman is in the 93rd percentile when taking unguarded jump shots per Synergy, averaging 1.55 points per possession. Traore is in the 84th percentile in shots at the rim per Synergy, averaging 1.34 points per possession. In other words, Waterman is more efficient at taking unguarded jump shots than Traore is in scoring at the rim. The way the three minutes before this play unfolded, the right defensive play was most likely to let Traore attempt to score at the rim.
In the third and final clip, Adams helps off Waterman too far in an attempt to take away the inside pass. Timberlake is caught on Traore, but Adams drifts too far into the paint, which creates too much distance to recover on Waterman who sinks the shot off the assist from Hall.
There’s no great way to defend BYU, but Kansas did hold them to 40 points through the first 27 minutes of the game. Unfortunately, BYU got open looks and gained confidence throughout the second half, scoring 36 points over the last 13 minutes to pull off the upset.
Unfortunately for the team, this loss will overshadow the shellacking against Texas last Saturday. The dichotomy of this team’s offense should be studied for years to come as the ball-movement was flawless against a Texas team that is arguably one of the most talented teams in the conference. The offense flowed smoothly as every starter scored in double-digits, and, despite making only three 3’s, they still put up 86 points. Texas looked helpless on both ends of the court, and it looked like a Kansas team that could make a deep run in the tournament. KJ Adams was the defensive catalyst of this game, absolutely locking up Dylan Disu who gave Kansas fits last season. It was the first time Disu was held below double-figures since January 17th. Dajuan Harris held Max Abmas to five points as the defense lived up to its top ten KenPom defensive efficiency rating.
Nick Timberlake scored 13 points, Elmarko Jackson and Jamari McDowell were both impactful in fifteen minutes, and Johnny Furphy was driving to the rim and drawing fouls. In other words, it was the peak of what Kansas could be if Kevin McCullar’s knee injury continues to keep him out of games. It felt like another game that would build the confidence of the bench players and raise the ceiling for this year. Instead, it was followed up by a tough loss against BYU.
This team is still in position to be a two or three seed in the NCAA Tournament, but the road doesn’t get easier with road games against Baylor and Houston in the next two weeks. They still rank seventh in Bart Torvik since Furphy joined the starting lineup, and it can’t be ignored that McCullar has missed four of the last five games with little indication he’ll be returning any time soon. If he is able to come back and contribute, this team is immediately better. If not, anything could happen.
If they are unable to make it to the Sweet Sixteen, this would mark the fourth time in five tournaments that Kansas didn’t get out of the first weekend. For a program like Kansas with a coach as good as Bill Self, there will be added pressure next season. Let’s hope we don’t have to dive into that this offseason.