It's Gonna Be Me

Nicolas Timberlake becomes the first commitment from the transfer portal for Kansas. What is he bringing to the team next year?

Hunter Dickinson! Primo Spears! Matthew Cleveland! It’s easy to get excited by the big names as they jump into the transfer portal. Imagining Dickinson posting up David N'Guessan feels like a dream at this point, but Kansas was able to pick up a lights-out shooter in Nicolas Timberlake. Timberlake is a player who will come in and immediately stretch the floor on the offensive end with an opportunity to provide some positives on the defensive end, too. An obvious need for Kansas after last season was to add more shooting, and Timberlake was one of the initial targets for the staff. At times during his recruitment, it felt like he was going to end up at Connecticut due to the proximity to home and later official visit, but Kansas was able to get their guy. The Kansas NIL bag is fully operational and no doubt played a role in this. It will be interesting to monitor over the next few years as more donor money is being utilized to fund NIL’s for recruiting (both high school targets and in the transfer portal) instead of athletic departments as a whole. Either way, Timberlake will be an important piece for next year’s team and could end up with a larger role than anticipated depending on how the rest of the roster shakes out over the next month.

Shooting

The heat map shows exactly what we can expect from Timberlake: a lethal three point shooter who can finish at the rim in some situations. The main reason Kansas was interested in Timberlake is his ability to shoot the basketball. He shot 41.6% on 221 attempts from behind the arc last year. As a comparison, Gradey Dick shot 40.3% on 206 attempts last year. There are significant differences between the two, though. Dick was a 6’8 NBA Prospect who shot well off the dribble. Only 79.5% of Dick’s 3 pointers last year were assisted compared to 94.6% of Timberlake’s. Timberlake isn’t as talented at creating open looks for himself as Dick was, indicating he will probably rely on a playmaking teammate more than Dick did. Something that stood out to me was his off-ball movement that led to open shots. Timberlake seems aware of when his defender is off-balance and uses that to his advantage, especially when taking hand-offs. He is an incredible shooter but will be better suited for a catch-and-shoot role rather than off-the-dribble shooting. Kansas could provide an offense that allows Timberlake to thrive with Dajuan Harris Jr. getting to the paint and finding open players. Another piece to this puzzle will be who is playing the 5, which might not be determined until the fall depending on how other recruiting dominoes fall.

Timberlake also shoots at a high percentage around the rim but on a low volume. Most of this comes from his ability to throw down some nasty dunks, especially in transition. He doesn’t appear to drive to the rim in the half-court game frequently which makes him easier to defend. This could be because he hasn’t needed to get to the basket, but more than likely it’s just not a part of his game. If it was, it probably would have turned up more in his tape. We’ve seen success from players at Kansas who shoot primarily from the outside without having the ability to get to the rim consistently, but it’s been less common over the last five to ten years. Whether Timberlake finds success may depend on who ends up around him on the court.

More Timberlake Dunks

Big XII Comparisons

I want to be clear that the comparisons above don’t outline the talent level of Timberlake but rather the playing style he had last season. There are some interesting things that we can pick out from these comparisons, and the first is that Timberlake has shown the ability to thrive playing off the ball. With Harris Jr. firmly in place as the engine of the offense and the possibility of adding other ball dominant players to the roster (Dickinson, Spears, or Arterio Morris), Timberlake’s ability to be successful without constantly needing the ball in his hands is important. We did see teams last year figure out how to defend Dick from the outside, which could be a worrying sign for Timberlake’s success depending on how the rest of the roster fills out. If Dickinson ends up at Kansas or Ernest Udeh Jr. makes a leap with his ability down low on offense, defenders could be faced with the decision of helping off Timberlake to dig onto a post player, opening up opportunities to get open shots that Dick didn’t see due to KJ Adams Jr. not playing a traditional “center” or “5” role. Otherwise, teams could focus on face-guarding Timberlake and limiting his ability to shoot 3’s. The hope is Kansas is able to get more consistent shooting from the outside from whoever starts at the guard and/or wing spots next to Timberlake making it more difficult for his man to stay connected for entire possessions.

Looking at the other three players in Stevenson, Miles, and Cryer, it’s easy to be optimistic about the impact that Timberlake can make. His style of play has been proven to work in the Big XII, but again, the style comparisons don’t outline the differences in talent. Timberlake has been playing at Towson against teams like Hofstra and Delaware, which is a significant step down in the level of competition he will face next year. Can he maintain the same level of success in the toughest basketball conference in the country? It’s certainly possible. Timberlake will have more talented teammates than he has had in his entire life. He has shown the ability to find the open space on the floor and hit a shot with a hand in his face. That could be more difficult against better athletes and defenders. The three non-Kansas player comps all had the ability to create space off of the dribble. Timberlake doesn’t appear to have the same capabilities as those three, but he has shown the ability to shoot from the midrange off of the dribble. It’s just not his best option.

While Timberlake can help fill the outside shooting hole created by Dick’s departure, he won’t be able to replicate Dick’s rebounding ability and size on the defensive end. Timberlake won’t be able to guard taller wings as effectively as Dick did, but he has shown an ability to jump into passing lanes at times. If Bill Self convinces Timberlake to buy in fully on the defensive end, we could see more than we see on tape. Part of this could also develop from him not having to carry an offensive load as significantly as he did at Towson. We know that Remy Martin struggled to provide what Self wanted on the defensive end for most of the season, but Timberlake will be in a different position. Remy was more heralded coming onto the team. He received pre-season accolades including being named the pre-season Big XII player of the year. The expectations were sky high. Timberlake most likely won’t have the same level of pressure on him. Harris Jr., Adams Jr., and Udeh Jr. will have higher expectations to lead this team than Timberlake due to their familiarity and name-recognition at Kansas. On top of that, Kansas is recruiting players that could take even more pressure off of Timberlake, lowering expectations even more, which could also help him find more relative success.

Nicolas Timberlake will be an important piece of the puzzle next season, but it’s yet to be decided how big of a piece this will be. Could he be the center piece? It’s possible, but that probably wouldn’t be the ideal scenario for Self and Kansas fans. It would mean Harris Jr., Adams Jr., and Udeh Jr. didn’t make a leap and Kansas whiffed on other portal options. In the right setting, Timberlake could be what separates Kansas from other top teams next year: a knock-down shooter who defenders can’t leave opening up space for even better players to work. Dick was the second best player for Kansas last year in this role, but if Timberlake ends up as the third or fourth best offensive option for Kansas, you could see Self and the Jayhawks lifting a trophy in Phoenix next April.