The Samford Files
It's finally time for the NCAA Tournament. How does Kansas matchup with its first round opponent?
Kansas knows their seed (a four), when they’re playing (8:55 CST on Thursday night), where they’re playing (Salt Lake City), and most importantly, who they’re playing against. Meet Samford: an up-tempo, turnover forcing, 3 point firing opponent who looks like a stylistic nightmare matchup for this year’s Kansas team. On top of that, Bill Self announced on Tuesday that Kevin McCullar would be out for the entirety of the NCAA Tournament. It’s a frustrating ending to a career for a player who stepped up at the beginning of the season as someone who could help carry the offensive load on a team that desperately needed a player to fill that role. McCullar’s two seasons at Kansas were filled with stout defense, big time shots in big time moments, and frustrations with his inconsistent availability due to injuries. When on the court this season, he played at an All-American level. Unfortunately, he suffered an injury that casts a shadow on an outstanding season due to the timing. If this happens in December and January with McCullar coming back and playing in February and March, he could have been viewed as a Kansas legend for leading an NCAA Tournament run. Instead, his time at Kansas feels incomplete in a way, and Kansas is suddenly shorthanded in a big way heading into the NCAA Tournament.
That being said, this newsletter is here to remind you why you should have some optimism heading into Thursday night’s matchup along with a few reasons why it makes sense to be concerned.
Metrics Breakdown
What you see above are the Kansas and Samford KenPom Scouting Report profiles. You can see that Samford plays at the 14th fastest tempo in the country, ranks 8th in three point shooting percentage, 20th in two point field goal percentage, and 40.9 percent of their field goal attempts come from behind the arc. They are 10th in the country in steal rate, which is driven by a full court press as well as mix-and-match zones that they throw at opponents, causing confusion and creating turnovers. In short, they sound like a combination of every team Kansas has struggled against this season.
It’s important to highlight all of their positives because there are significant issues in believing this will translate to success against Kansas. Their strength of schedule stands out as one of the biggest drivers to their success. They’ve put up good shooting numbers and an above average offense overall against the 268th (out of 362) hardest schedule in the country. They’ve created these turnovers and confused opponents against the 216th hardest schedule in the country. Kansas has put up an above average offense against the 2nd most difficult schedule based on opponent’s defensive efficiency metrics. They’ve put up the a top ten defense in the country against the 11th most difficult schedule in the country. Tennessee and Marquette are the only two teams in the country with a top ten defensive efficiency against top ten opponents, which puts Kansas in elite territory defensively.
For all of Samford’s strengths, they aren’t a team that will come across as more athletic than Kansas. That alleviates one of the biggest concerns with this year’s team. An area that Kansas should be able to exploit is Samford’s lack of height. Samford ranks 349th in the country in terms of average height and these are the heights of their eight players who average over 15 minutes per game: 6’9, 6’7, 6’6, 6’5, 6’5, 6’0, 6’0, 5’8. Their starters are 6’9, 6’5, 6’5, 6’0, and 5’8. In other words, Kansas needs to use the height and length of their players to create advantages on Thursday night. For example, Samford gives up offensive rebounds to their opponents on 32.0 percent of misses. Kansas could have opportunities to crash the offensive glass but will need to be aware of Samford’s quick transition game.
Samford turns the ball over on 18.1 percent of their possessions, and Kansas’ length should give them the opportunity to create more easy opportunities on Thursday night. The key for Kansas on the defensive end will be ensuring Dickinson doesn’t get pulled into bad matchups on the perimeter but is also not so far off of shooters coming off screens that Samford gets open looks. In their game against Purdue to open the season, Purdue chose to drop Zach Edey into the paint. This worked due to Samford shooting poorly from the outside but might not work if Samford is making 3’s. One solution could be Dickinson hedging on ball-screens, which he did in conference games against Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. Whether Self didn’t feel that was successful or tenable to maintain for the entire season is his decision, but if Dickinson can muster up the energy to give the guards help, it could elevate the defense’s ceiling.
Play Style
Offensive
Samford takes an excessive amount of their shots in transition with 21.8 percent of their possessions ending with a transition opportunity which ranks in the 97th percentile in the country. They thrive in creating looks for their teammates with a majority of their shots coming as Spot Up opportunities, meaning they don’t shoot off the dribble or by utilizing pick-and-rolls to create looks for the ball-handler as frequently as opponents do. Kansas can limit these looks by switching screens and playing tight defense. As mentioned above, Samford shouldn’t have the athletes to blow past Kansas defenders in a half court offense which should help with this, and Kansas’ length can help to close passing windows. If Kansas can limit Samford’s transition opportunities and turn the game into a half court contest, they will be in a good position to win.
Defensively, Samford is going to give Kansas looks that Kansas hasn’t seen all year. They press on 39.2 percent of possessions which comes after most made baskets and dead ball situations that require the opponent to take the ball the length of the floor. With this press, they immediately trap the inbounds pass in the corner, meaning that Kansas will have to be prepared for immediate pressure when receiving the ball. When Harris or Adams is the recipient of the inbounds pass, you should ideally be able to trust the ball comes out quickly enough and to the right teammate to break the press. Elmarko Jackson and Nick Timberlake have shown a tendency to make poor decisions when pressured, and Samford will likely look to deny passes to Harris and possibly even Adams. Some teams have had success with inbounding the ball in the center of the floor, and having their two wings immediately break up the outside of the court. With quick outlets to the wings, teams have been able to get three on two transition looks against Samford, which can lead to easy buckets or fouls. That’s easier said than done as Samford plays an aggressive game and takes advantage of poor passes from opponents. Similarly aggressive teams have had success against Kansas by forcing them into mistakes (Iowa State, Marquette, and Houston are examples of teams who play aggressive defense).
On top of the press, they play a zone defense on 29.8 percent of possessions, throwing different looks at opponents throughout the game. They played Purdue in the opening game of the season and will probably follow a similar game plan to the one they utilized to slow down Edey in order to hinder Kansas’ offense. It will most likely be more effective against Kansas, though. Against Purdue, Samford dropped into the paint with someone almost always in help defense to cut down on passing angles to Edey. When Edey caught the ball, he was immediately pressured by multiple players on almost every possession. Purdue was able to make Samford pay by shooting 16/29 from behind the arc. Combined with Samford going 5/31, it led to a 53 point blowout victory from Purdue.
Kansas’ path to victory against Samford won’t look anything like that. Dickinson is a better passer than Edey, and the game plan will probably involve Dickinson hitting cutters when he’s double-teamed. However, Samford will almost assuredly pack the pain similar to the way Texas Tech did in February, forcing Kansas to make shots from behind the arc. It will be more important than ever that Timberlake and Johnny Furphy are able to keep their defenders honest or knock down outside shots. Harris talked about how he wasn’t good enough after the Big 12 tournament loss to Cincinnati, and hopefully that leads to an aggressive Harris against Samford. When he looks to shoot when he’s left alone, he has shown he can make teams pay. The Kentucky game is the perfect example of what Harris can do when he has an aggressive mindset. He’ll need to be willing to take the open looks that Samford will give him on Thursday night.
Player Overview
Achor Achor - The 6’9 starter leads Samford in averaging 15.8 points per game, 6.1 rebounds, and 1.8 blocks in just 22.4 minutes per game, Achor has been Samford’s offensive driver this season. He shoots 44.6 percent from 3 (only 56 attempts) and gets to the free throw line consistently. Achor ranks 18th in the country in fouls drawn per 40 minutes according to KenPom. He ranks 206th overall in KenPom’s offensive efficiency rating and is Samford’s most-utilized player. on top of this, his block percentage on the defensive end is 9.2 percent and ranks 28th in the country. In other words, he blocks a shot once every eleven possessions. Achor is a terrific player, and he could be a tough matchup for Kansas.
A.J. Staton-McCray - A third team all-conference player, Staton-McCray was named to the first team all-defensive team as well. Staton-McCray’s impact comes in the form of on-ball pressure, as he averages 1.6 steals per game while grabbing 3.7 defensive rebounds per game. He is a catalyst to the press that drives Samford’s success. On top of his defensive impact, he is second on the team averaging 11.6 points per game while shooting 42.0 percent from behind the arc.
Jaden Campbell - Campbell ranks 19th in the country in KenPom’s offensive efficiency rating. He shoots 53.7 percent from the field including 47.2 percent from 3. He’s third on the team averaging 11.1 points per game. Campbell is a player that can’t be left alone behind the arc or he will make Kansas pay. He doesn’t always shoot a high volume of shots for Samford, but that’s why he’s so efficient.
Rylan Jones - The Southern Conference Newcomer of the Year and third team all-conference player, Jones lead the Southland Conference in assist to turnover ratio and ranked sixth in the country heading into their conference tournament, averaging 3.56 assists per turnover. If you’re looking for a player that will haunt Kansas fans for years, this is the guy. He shoots 38.2 percent from 3, averages 9.4 points per game, 4.9 assists, and 1.5 steals per game. He creates off the dribble and knocks down open shots. While he stands only 6’0, he and Achor stand out when you watch Samford as their most important players.
Dallas Graziani - Samford’s 5’8 starter, Graziani is similar to the New Orleans Pelicans’ Jose Alvarado in the way that he’ll frustrate opponents offensive players by being a pest the entire time he’s on the court. A high-energy player, his play helps set the tone for the team. He averages 1.5 steals per game but doesn’t make a major impact on the offensive end of the court. He’s an ideal player for someone like Nick Timberlake to defend when they are on the court at the same time.
Jermaine Marshall - Marshall is a player who many thought would be one of the best players for Samford this season, but an injury suffered in late December caused him to miss a month and a half. He’s been working his way back into a larger role and scored 23 points in the Southland Conference tournament championship game. Marshall is a balanced player who can score inside, but also shoots 36.1 percent from 3. He feels like a player who matches up well with Kansas, and Samford might rely on him to play more minutes than their rotation might indicate in order to better match Kansas’ size.
Garrett Hicks - A transfer from Alabama A&M, Hicks is averaging 6.6 points per game off the bench. He’s consistent which is something you can’t say about most of Kansas’ bench and has shown flashes of having a higher ceiling on the offensive end as recently as their conference tournament when he scored 15 points in their opening game against Mercer.
Nathan Johnson - Johnson is a forward that comes off the bench to provide some height at 6’7. He was a starter in half of Samford’s games last season but has taken on a bench role this year. Johnson will provide solid minutes off the bench and gives Samford more length in their press. Despite this, Johnson doesn’t feel like a good matchup against Kansas as he would most likely be lined up against Adams. Johnson is only 205 pounds, which should allow Adams to bully him in the paint on the offensive end.
Riley Allenspach - A 6’11 freshman, Allenspach is the only player on Samford’s roster who might look comparable to Dickinson. He only averages 12.2 minutes a game, and he hasn’t shown a propensity to block or deter shots when he’s on the floor. He averages 1.5 fouls in those minutes as well. Allenspach could either see minutes as a Dickinson deterrent if Samford is desperate to slow him down, or he could see five minutes if they like the mismatch Achor presents.
Josh Holloway - Holloway is a freshman who averages 13.0 minutes per game, but it would be surprising if he plays over ten minutes in this game. He doesn’t shoot particularly well, but he does average 2.1 assists per game in those limited minutes. Expect to see him create for teammates when he’s on the floor.
Lukas Walls - An interesting player to break down, Walls scored 11 points and played over 20 minutes in both of the two games before the Southland Conference tournament, but then played only 10 minutes combined in the three conference tournament. Walls shoots 46.7 percent from 3 (only 30 attempts), and appears to be a player that Samford uses to change up looks against opponents.
Roster Overview
Samford has quite a few options on their bench, and they will use them interchangeably. This could be an advantage with the teams playing at altitude if Samford can speed up Kansas. If they are slowed down, then the deep bench won’t have as much of an effect on the game. Samford does play quite a few players, and in a one-and-done game where TV timeouts are longer, this could change how quickly they’re able to get into the flow of the game. Again, Kansas will need to ensure they take easy opportunities when they get them, but avoid taking unnecessary shots early in the shot clock to avoid getting sped up by Samford. Kansas appears to match up well with Samford’s roster, which indicates advantages for the more talented team.
Is This the End?
It’s possible that Kansas loses to Samford on Thursday night. The combination of injuries and lack of production from the supporting cast could limit the upside for this year’s team, but the bracket is set up nicely for a team that is matchup dependent to make a deep run. Their success in this game will probably depend on Dickinson’s recovery from his injury and Kansas’ ability to make outside shots. After the past month, it’s easy to question if this team can pull off a win in the Round of 64; however, Kansas still has a talented team, a potential 2024 first round NBA Draft pick, a second team All-American, and the best coach in the country. Bet against them at your own risk.