Caught a Wave
After Kansas finished the Feast Week Tournament 2-1, it's time to take a quick look at where this team stands heading into the rest of the non-conference schedule.
The big news for Kansas basketball broke the day the team left for Maui: K.J. Adams Jr.’s mom had passed away. His mother had been fighting bladder cancer since 2021, and while it wasn’t unexpected, it’s a huge loss for anyone. If you haven’t, I highly recommend checking out C.J Moore’s article on The Athletic from February. It’s poignant and highlights the Adams’ relationship. Please keep the family in your thoughts as they are processing the loss of a loved one.
“Shut the f— up!” Can you imagine Bill Self saying that to an opposing player? Shaka Smart barking at Kevin McCullar Jr. late in the first half of the Kansas-Marquette game was unexpected and unbecoming. McCullar Jr. turned and said something to the Marquette bench after hitting a 3 to close the Marquette lead to five, 33-28. Completely ignoring the hypocrisy of his own player, Kam Jones, doing the exact same thing to give Marquette a 6-2 lead 81 seconds into the game, Smart chose to curse at an opposing player leading to several seconds of posturing by both teams players and coaching staffs heading into a timeout. Assistant coach Kurtis Townsend was especially involved from a Kansas perspective, but Self and Smart were alone when the referees were discussing the situation after the break. Both coaches appeared to be fed up with each other with Self trying to walk away with an, “Alright, alright,” while Smart wasn’t done giving his opinion. Either way, the dust up had little to do with the outcome, but shows a fire and in the Kansas team1 that seems ready to accept the role of the villain this season.2 Marquette kept Kansas at arms-length for the majority of the second half with Kansas helping them out at times. This was a perfect early-season matchup for Kansas for a multitude of reasons, but it also helped balance the analytics that had sky-rocketed due to favorable matchups for Kansas prior to this game.
Below are some of my thoughts and some advanced metrics that I wanted to highlight following the Maui Tournament, setting up the rest of the non-conference season with Kansas having games against Connecticut, Indiana, Missouri, and Wichita State in the next month.3
The Marquette Problem
Teams that play like Marquette will be a problem for this year’s Kansas team. There’s rightfully some frustration and skepticism that this team might not be what Kansas fans were expecting coming into the season, and Marquette provided an opportunity to showcase where this team struggles. Despite the lass, there is a reason for optimism.
Marquette sped Kansas up by pressuring the ball with an aggressiveness that left Kansas looking lost at times. There are a few reasons why this is concerning:
Kansas doesn’t know who to play at the 2. Elmarko Jackson has struggled so far with the speed and complexity of the college game. Nick Timberlake looks like a shell of the player we saw on his Towson tape. One of those players was expected to step up and provide a steady hand opposite of Dajuan Harris Jr., but instead Jamari McDowell4 has looked like the best option. Johnny Furphy has shown glimpses of having something special but appears to still be working through shin splints that have put him on a minutes restriction.
Widely considered an experienced team, you would expect Kansas to be able to handle whatever pressure opponents threw at them. They looked rattled far too often and handed Marquette the ball with unforced turnovers by trying to force the ball to players at times. Kansas players began forcing things, with McCullar Jr. leading the way. When your star players are trying to do too much, the rest of the team will follow suit.
There are other reasons for concern as well:
Kansas was unable to take advantage of a significant size advantage. While Dickinson’s numbers were fine, it’s understandable to expect more in a game like this. He only took ten field goal attempts and was shut down by a Marquette team who doesn’t have a terrifying post player on the defensive end. They pressured passers into bad angles, communicated well, and limited opportunities for Dickinson with team defense.
Marquette was obviously amped for this game while Kansas looked a little less enthused. You could see it from the moment Kam Jones hit his first 3. Smart had his team fired up and prepared to play. They out-hustled and out-worked Kansas in almost every facet of the game.
Every single one of those points is valid, but at the same time, there is optimism for this Kansas team:
There are very few teams who can match the talent, style, and relentlessness of Marquette. Kansas won’t see another team this dedicated on the defensive side of the ball in between their Connecticut and first Houston game.
This situation won’t be repeated for the rest of the season. Kansas only had about 13 hours to prepare for Marquette along with supporting Adams Jr. and his family as they arrived only hours before the opening tip against Chaminade. It was a highly emotional time for one of Kansas’ most important players, and due to how close this team has been off the court, rightfully could have affected the entire team’s preparation for the game. The only games Kansas will play with under one day of preparation will be at the Big 12 tournament against teams they will have already played and scouted more thoroughly. It’s tough enough to simulate Marquette’s pressure and almost impossible to prepare for on short-notice without any extenuating factors.
The younger players should improve as the season goes along. Jackson, McDowell, and Johnny Furphy all appear to be part of the rotation. Over time, these three will become more acclimated to the college game and provide more productive minutes in high-pressure situations.
Playing games like this early in the season almost always help as the season goes along. Teams like Houston and Iowa State play the same sort of attacking defense in conference play.5 Seeing this from arguably a more talented and aggressive team already should help the Kansas players understand what they need to avoid in those matchups.
Defying Depth
At one point during the Tennessee game, Jay Bilas said something to the effect that the Kansas team isn’t a deep team and will only go nine deep for their rotation. Less than two hours later on the very same floor, he was lauding Purdue for their depth because they play ten guys.6 It was the ultimate contradiction on a day filled with statistical contradictions. While Kansas’ depth is still developing, they were able to beat a top 15 opponent on a neutral court the day after suffering a tough loss.
Against Kansas, many of the numbers seem to indicate that Tennessee should have had an advantage in the game.
Kansas had ten more turnovers than Tennessee, 15-5.
Tennessee took 19 more shots than Kansas, 71-52.
Tennessee made five more 3’s than Kansas.
Tennessee had nine offensive rebounds compared to Kansas’ five.
Kansas only shot 50% from the free throw line on 22 attempts.
Despite all of this, Kansas beat a top 15 team on a neutral floor by nine points. This was a massive bounce-back win by this team and avoided having two-loss early season tournament on their resume for the first time since the 2005-06 team lost two games at the Maui Invitational.7 A large portion of this is due to Dickinson going for what should feel like an unreal 19 points and 20 rebounds. It would feel more unrealistic if he didn’t already have games of 31/11 and 27/21 this season. He’s been a wrecking ball through the first five games of the season, and he currently ranks second, behind Zach Edey, on KenPom’s Player of the Year tracker. Dickinson is 20.8 points and 14.3 rebounds per game and has honestly probably exceeded fans’ expectations of him coming into the season. He’s efficient, can stretch the floor, and feels like a cheat code at times. There will certainly be some disappointment with his defensive struggles and lack of development in the quickness category, but all-in-all, he’s been a monster for this Kansas team.
While we’re at it, let’s talk about the player who is currently ninth on that list. McCullar Jr. put together his second consecutive triple-double in the tournament opener against Chaminade. He is only the seventh player in NCAA to officially achieve this feat.8 His play this year is reminiscent of the leap that Jalen Wilson took last year, only it has showcased itself in every statistical category. His shooting is still questionable, and he has tried to force some passes that feel out-of-character at times.9 At the same time, he’s stuffing the box score and has been an important emotional leader early in the season for Kansas.
Looking at the Numbers
These numbers were pulled from Synergy on 11/29, so they include the Eastern Illinois game.
Offensive Numbers
The numbers outline that Kansas has graded out as Excellent in half court offense and only Average in Transition opportunities. Looking at it from a more detailed point of view, this makes sense. Dickinson is Kansas’ most efficient offensive player, and he hasn’t been involved in any transition opportunities this season. This would help explain the differences between the team’s half-court and transition success. However, we’ve seen the lack of spacing starting to become an issue in the three most recent games. After playing Chaminade, Kansas was the top team in the country, averaging almost 1.17 points per possession in half-court possessions. Marquette, Tennessee, and Eastern Illinois have provided a blueprint to anyone watching Kansas in the past three games. They stopped guarding Adams Jr. when he’s outside of the paint and used his man to help clog the paint and remove angles for entry passes to Dickinson. On top of this, Harris Jr. and Jackson’s defenders have begun doing the same thing. This is putting three to four defensive players within reach to stop Dickinson from even receiving a pass. On top of this, they are then in a position to stop Kansas players from driving to the paint and while simultaneously taking away cutting opportunities if Dickinson does receive a pass.
It’s a issue that has been further exacerbated by Kansas’ inability to consistently shoot from the outside. Timberlake has struggled, McCullar Jr. is similar to where he was last season, and Jackson hasn’t been able to provide a lift either. Harris Jr. is 1/9 from 3 outside of the Kentucky game. McDowell and Furphy both have looked capable of hitting shots from the outside somewhat consistently and have provided valuable minutes off the bench where they help stretch the floor for Dickinson. While not perfect, Kansas needs one of McCullar Jr., Timberlake, or Jackson to become a consistent threat from the outside to make this offense work at its highest efficiency.
An area where we should expect to see a higher rate of success is this team’s finishing in transition opportunities. There have also been some issues making shots at the rim on fast breaks with the team only making 22 of their 35 layup attempts excluding shots where they were fouled. Unfortunately for Kansas, teams have fouled them in these situations. This leads to free throws where Kansas is currently shooting 67.44 percent, ranking 254th in the country. If you’re looking for areas to improve, that has to make the list.
A second issue is that this team has been sped up in transition and hasn’t made good decisions with the ball, turning the ball over on 15.7 percent of their opportunities so far this season. Out of 108 transition chances, Kansas has turned the ball over 17 times. Since they are averaging 1.05 points per transition shot, we’ll use that to say that those turnovers have cost Kansas around 18 points. In the grand scheme of things, 18 points over seven games might not make a difference. When you look at it potentially being worth 2.5 points per game, it could become important. Kansas was involved in 12 games decided by five or fewer points last season. Two points that aren’t gained by a team in those games at any given point could have made a significant difference. We saw Kansas fail to take advantage of some opportunities to close the gap against Marquette. While they were able to stretch the lead against Tennessee, they missed opportunities against Eastern Illinois. For Kansas to reach their ceiling, we’ll have to see an improvement in finishing transition opportunities moving forward.
For the numbers above, the Spot Up category is what we see from this Kansas team a large portion of the time. Most of these shots are taken by McCullar Jr. (26 of the 113 attempts are from him) with Furphy, Jackson, Timberlake, and McDowell all around 15 attempts apiece. This indicates that on these opportunities, these players are receiving a pass and not having to take a dribble or make a move to get an open look. These are the types of shots you want in an offense. It indicates there are opportunities to get good shots. However, if the players can’t make these shots, then it becomes an issue. In the same way that it felt like there was a lack of a third option behind Jalen Wilson and Gradey Dick last year, it feels like unless one of those four players can consistently make these shots, Kansas could have the same issue with depth scoring as the season goes along. Furphy has graded out as Excellent in these opportunities with Timberlake as Average and Jackson and McDowell have graded out as Below Average. Furphy is currently averaging 14.7 minutes per game, but I’d expect that to increase if he continues to be a reliable offensive option and recovers from his shin splints.
The Cut category is where I expected it to be heading into the season, but there’s actually a chance for it to improve even further. Dickinson has the highest rate of attempts in this category but only grades out as Average, shooting 13/19. If he finishes at a slightly higher rate, say 15/19, he can help push this into an even higher rated Play Type for Kansas. Adams Jr. and McCullar Jr. both grade out as Excellent in shooting off of cuts. Part of this is due to the gravity effect that Dickinson has on defenses that gives those two space. As long as they are able to find space, this still feels like the most effective and efficient way for Kansas to score.
Kansas has utilized Post Up opportunities significantly more than last season thanks to Dickinson. After only having 108 Post Up possessions last season, Kansas is at 63 through seven games. At this rate, they will surpass last season’s usage before they meet Wichita State on December 30th. While not a surprise, the success of the Post Up game has been seen with both Dickinson and Adams Jr. with Adams Jr. taking advantage of being defended by players not as strong as he is. We’ll continue to see Self attempt to use sets that give post up opportunities, though the lack of spacing increases the likelihood of more Spot Up shots or Cuts being utilized when Dickinson receives the ball in the post.
Defensive Numbers
While it may not have seemed like it should in real time, Kansas’ defensive numbers still grade out well. The transition numbers took significant hits in both the Kentucky and Marquette games, but the half court defense has surprisingly held up. There are definitely areas where this doesn’t pass the eye test (namely when opposing players are blowing by the Kansas big men on their way to the basket). Despite this, Kansas still grades out as Excellent in half court defense.
The strangest defensive issue so far this year has been Harris Jr. The reigning Big 12 Player of the Year has been seemingly nonchalant in some of the less significant games this year: North Carolina Central, Manhattan, Chaminade, and Eastern Illinois. He currently rates at Kansas’ second worst defender in half court sets ahead of only Adams Jr. We should give him the benefit of the doubt as he’s consistently been able to perform at a high level in the past. The Adams Jr. part of the equation reflects some of the concerns that a few people had with the team heading into the season. Despite impressive individual plays as a freshman,10 Adams Jr. didn’t have to play on the perimeter as much while playing the five last season. This season has created a new test for him, and he hasn’t passed it at this point.
As far as Play Types, Kansas has mostly seen Spot Up attempts against them. While they rate out as Very Good, Adams Jr. is the most common defender on these attempts and rates out as Below Average in the 17th percentile. One positive surprise in the Spot Up category is Jamari McDowell who rates out as Very Good. McDowell has looked like the one of the best options for Kansas at the 2, and his defensive performance is something that Self can lean on to give him additional minutes.
Teams are consistently working to put Kansas into Pick-and-Roll situations, and we should expect this to continue as long as Dickinson and Adams Jr. are sharing the court. Harris Jr. and Jackson have both have both graded out as Average against the P&R Ball Handler with McCullar Jr. grading out as Excellent. Harris Jr. and Jackson both get dinged a little for their men scoring when Adams Jr. or Dickinson are defending the screener and get stuck on quicker defenders on shots coming out of screens. In other words, the guards can see their grades affected by the post players not reacting well to pick and rolls. Self has found a way to fix this in the past, but this roster does contain two bigs among Kansas’ four best players. It’s tough to take them off the court but also tough to fix this issue quickly.
Overall, McCullar Jr., McDowell, Jackson, and Timberlake (!!!) have graded out as Excellent on the defensive end through seven games this season. Dickinson and Parker Braun have both graded out as Good and Harris Jr., Adams Jr., and Furphy have graded out as Average. While there are some positive developments, Kansas will need Harris Jr. and Adams Jr. to start performing better on the defensive end sooner rather than later for this Kansas team to look like they are capable of winning a National Championship this season.
In Conclusion
This Kansas team has some faults, and the Marquette game helped identify and highlight some of the issues. While Self would obviously prefer to win when these issues are brought to light, there’s something to be said about a tough loss hammering the point home. This is especially true when you have several upperclassmen who might not have played with the urgency Self would prefer over the first three weeks of the season. They still could be the best team in the country, but there are things that will need to be fixed before Kansas gets to conference season. Another tough challenge awaits in the form of Connecticut, the defending National Champions, on Friday, but it’s also a chance for this team to put a stamp on where they belong in the national picture a month into the season.
One issue early in the season wouldn’t generally showcase this, but adding in the Dajuan Harris Jr.-Antonio Reeves piece from the Kentucky game shows that this Kansas team is ready to stand up for themselves more readily than last season’s team.
Hunter Dickinson is a driving factor in this, both from his transfer process and the quotes he’s been handing out early in the season.
Only one of these teams is ranked, but the other three have drawn Kansas’ ire due to different reasons: Indiana - recruiting battles and trash-talk between the program’s fans is at an all-time high, Missouri - Dennis Gates has seemingly started a renaissance for their basketball program with the on-court results lagging behind, Wichita State - bragging rights from their 2015 win still intact, Self will want to regain those in Kansas City.
McDowell has been more than advertised to start the season. He’s hit 3’s when left open, crashed the boards on both ends, and hasn’t tried to do too much. While not as dynamic as the other recruits, McDowell appears to be gaining more and more of Self’s trust as he consistently does the right things on the court.
While the advanced metrics are shining on Houston right now, they’ve played the 253rd toughest schedule to date per KenPom. They have historically streaky shooters who might struggle against more athletic and deeper teams. I just struggle to see this team replicating this performance on a nightly basis in Big 12 play.
While Bilas does sometimes have some Duke bias, he’s usually a solid color commentator for college basketball games. The absurdity that only having nine players in the rotation indicates a lack of depth was a poor take from someone who is a knowledgeable media member.
This was the season immediately following the departure of Aaron Miles, Wayne Simien, and Keith Langford. They were relying on young players and had a tough matchup with number nine Arizona before falling to an unranked Arkansas team, 65-64, in the consolation bracket.
Due to assists and blocks not being accurately tracked and included in this number prior to the 1980’s, it’s highly likely other players could have achieved this at some point in the past.
It sounds like McCullar Jr. was playing through an illness in Maui. Hopefully he’s had a chance to rest and recover since the trip.
Adams Jr.’s defensive legend started with a possession against Miami’s Kameron McGusty right before halftime in the Elite Eight game. He was also chosen by Self to defend Caleb Love on the final possession of the National Championship before Christian Braun changed the matchup walking onto the court.