Duke Preview

A statistical breakdown of the upcoming matchup in Las Vegas between Kansas and Duke.

Kansas has started the season 5-0 with a couple of impressive wins on their resume against North Carolina and Michigan State. On top of this, they have two more wins over stylistically-challenging opponents in Oakland (1-3-1 Zone) and North Carolina-Wilmington (Up-tempo). Perhaps no matchup on the schedule is more highly anticipated than the upcoming game against Duke in Las Vegas.

Duke came into the season with somehow even more media interest than normal due to the addition of freshman Cooper Flagg. Flagg drew rave reviews from NBA players after starring in a scrimmage with the USA Select team against the USA Olympic team this summer. Essentially, he’s the prospect most widely identified as a future star since Andrew Wiggins. Through four games, Flagg has lived up to the hype, averaging 16.3 points, 9.5 rebounds, 4.0 assists, and 1.8 blocks per game. Moreso than that, he’s shown a competitive fire and defensive focus that sometimes appears to be missing from top prospects. On top of Flagg, Duke returns guards Tyrese Proctor and Caleb Foster from last year’s team. They also brought in two other high-rated freshmen in Kon Knueppel and Khaman Malauch, and three transfers: Sion James (Tulane), Mason Gillis (Purdue), and Maliq Brown (Syracuse) to help fill out the roster. Knueppel has stepped in as Duke’s second option, averaging 14.8 points on 38.5 percent 3-point shooting. Proctor (12.8 points per game) and Foster (9.8) are the next two most consistent options for Duke. It’s an incredibly talented and long roster with no one in the rotation falling below 6’5. This could create some matchup issues for Kansas’ depth pieces at guard.¹ It’s going to be a tough game for Kansas to win, and they will need to play better than they have in order to head back to Lawrence 6-0.

Duke plays Arizona on Friday, November 22nd. The numbers outlined below do not include numbers from that game.

How the Teams Matchup

Duke’s defense has been impressive so far this season², and their length makes things tough for teams who score around the basket. Kansas takes 43.7 percent of their shots at the rim. Only around 20 percent (30 of the 138) of these attempts have come from Hunter Dickinson, which means that other Kansas players are getting opportunities at the rim. This might change against Duke.

After the game against UNC-Wilmington, Bill Self had the following quote when asked about 3-point shooting:

"I'm not gonna worry about that. You know we were 6 for 25 and if you go 9 for 25 it's a 27-point game. They were good looks. I've bet of the 25 maybe one or two that you wouldn't want. Shak took one which I didn't think he needed to. But other than that, the right guys are shooting them. So we'll make them. We'll make them."

In other words, Self isn’t overly concerned with some of the shooting troubles we’ve seen so far. The last newsletter echoed the same sentiment in the sense that it was too early to overreact to a small sample size. The main focus right now should be the volume of 3-point attempts. At this point in the season, Kansas shoots a 3 on every 33.2 out of 100 shot attempts. This ranks 303rd in the country. They are shooting 34.3 percent from 3 which ranks 145th in the country. Games in NBA arenas and NFL domes typically see higher variability with 3-point shooting, so Tuesday certainly isn’t an ideal situation for a team looking to improve those shooting percentages. It’s also likely Kansas will have to take more outside shots against Duke unless Dickinson is so dominant that they can’t help but go inside due to their length and ability to clog up the middle of the court.

Offensive Comparison

Synergy offers scouting reports that compare opponent’s statistics as a numerical, percentile, and overall ranking in different categories. Below are some of the areas that help identify strengths and weaknesses on both ends of the court. Again, keep in mind that Kansas has played two games against Power Four competition, whereas Duke has only played one, against Kentucky.

Not much separates the two teams on points per possession, this indicates that both teams would score a similar number of points if everything is equal in a game. Duke plays slightly faster, but not enough that it will make a significant impact on the game. Kansas has a slightly higher effective field goal percentage, but the area that stood out was the Score Percent, which is the percentage of possessions that end in at least one point. Kansas ranks 26th in the country, scoring on just under 50 percent of their possessions. In other words, Kansas is more likely to score on any given possession than Duke is. Duke scores on 44.6 percent, but that combined with the points per possession indicates they attempt and make 3’s at a higher rate than Kansas (which is backed up by the stat that 48.3 percent of Duke’s field goal attempts are 3-point field goals). Both teams have low turnover percentages and get to the free throw line at a lower rate than most teams (percent free throw). In general, both teams play at a similar pace and rarely come away without taking a shot. This game could come down to which team makes 3’s at a higher rate.

Defensive Comparison

The defensive end swings highly in Duke’s favor, largely bolstered by an 86-35 walloping of Wofford. They rank 20th in points per possession and 11th in effective field goal percentage defense. They rank 40th in the percent of possessions that end up in free throws and only allow points on 32.8 percent of possessions, which ranks 11th overall. As mentioned above, some of this is schedule-based. They’ve played the teams that currently rank 316th, 203rd, and 100th in offensive efficiency per KenPom. Kansas has played the teams that currently rank 7th and 66th in offensive efficiency. At times, the Kansas defense has looked fantastic, but the North Carolina and UNC-Wilmington games certainly hurt Kansas here. The first half against Michigan State was a masterclass to the point where Kansas missed 15 consecutive shots and still went into halftime with a ten point lead. While the Spartans aren’t offensive juggernauts, they are still more talented than every team Duke has faced outside of Kentucky. While the defense hasn’t been perfect, they’ve been respectable at almost every point this season. They will likely need to turn it up a level in order to slow down Duke’s deep lineup.

Summary

Duke’s offense will likely put pressure on the Kansas defense with three strong ball-handlers. At the same time, it’s very easy to see how Kansas can match up with Duke with the worst wing/guard defender (usually Mayo or Coit) staying attached on the perimete to Knueppel and having Harris, Moore, and Griffen pressuring the two guards. KJ Adams might be forced into a tough matchup with Flagg, but this is his chance to prove his role and quiet down an increasing number of vocal detractors (mostly due to his disappointing rebounding and lack of offensive firepower). Storr will probably need to defend Flagg at times as well, which could be a disaster or a challenge he takes on full force.³ Duke will most likely get some easy buckets and open 3’s by utilizing screens, but Kansas has a chance to really push themselves on the defensive end of the court on Tuesday.

On the other end of the court, Kansas will face its toughest challenge of the season with Duke’s length and defensive buy-in pushing them towards what looks like could develop into a defensive monster by the end of the season. They have flexibility and versatility that is generally unmatched by any other team in the country. Kentucky found success by using ball-screens (1.20 points per possession), hand-offs (1.167), and cuts (1.167) to generate looks on the offensive end. This is probably where Kansas will choose to attack unless Dickinson continually gets positive position against Malauch, which is extremely possible. Kentucky also shot 17/24 from the line and 10/25 from behind the arc. Kansas doesn’t get to the free throw line as frequently as other teams, and they have been inconsistent from 3. Again, Mayo, Harris, Griffen, Storr, and Coit’s ability to make shots on Tuesday will likely decide the game.

It will be imperative that Kansas take advantage of open looks on Tuesday, which has been one of their strangest issues so far this season. Duke’s defense will pressure Kansas and seems connected so far this season. Kansas does have one big advantage, and that is on the sidelines. Self is significantly more experienced than Jon Scheyer, and it’s possible this plays a role if the game is close near the end. Self has drawn up plays for Dickinson whenever Kansas has needed a bucket so far this season, but there has to be something in his playbook for when a team prepares for this eventuality. Duke feels like a team who will drop a second defender into the paint to protect against this and force Kansas’ shooters to beat them. It has a chance to be a statement game for Harris, Mayo, and Griffen.

Overall, it should be fun to see this Kansas team play against a generational talent in Flagg, and it will likely be a competitive game throughout. Kansas’ leaders (Dickinson and Harris) have stepped up in big moments so far this season, and it’s likely we’ll see that again on Tuesday. If other teammates can elevate their games as well, Kansas should head into Thanksgiving as a 6-0 team with wins no other team in the country can compete against.

1. Diggy Coit and Shakeel Moore in particular could struggle to match up against any of Duke’s players.

2. The easy counter to this is Duke’s strength of schedule currently ranks 231st on KenPom while Kansas ranks 146th.

3. After seeing Storr’s reaction to fouling out against Michigan State, he feels like a player who wants to shine on the big stage. This is his best opportunity to do so, and, if he makes it a personal challenge to handle Flagg, could earn some leeway from Self moving forward. Another piece to watch is if he is forcing shots on the offensive end. If he plays within the offense, he can score double-figures pretty easily as evidenced by the Oakland game. When he attempts to force looks, he turns the ball over or takes poor shots.