“Suffering has been stronger than all other teaching, and has taught me to understand what your heart used to be. I have been bent and broken, but - I hope - into a better shape.” - Charles Dickens, Great Expectations
While suffering might be too strong of a word for what Kansas fans went through in the Round of 32 game against Arkansas last year, Bill Self seemed to take it as a personal challenge to bend the Kansas team into better shape. We’re just over a month away from the start of the season, and it felt like the right time to forecast expectations onto this newly bent team.
It’s only been five years since Kansas was widely considered the preseason number one team across media publications. In 2018, the additional of Dedric Lawson, Quentin Grimes, and Devon Dotson to a Self-coached team with Lagerald Vick, Udoka Azubuike, and Marcus Garrett felt like an obvious choice. In 2023-24, Kansas adds Hunter Dickinson, Elmarko Jackson, and Nick Timerlake to the Self-coached team led by Dajuan Harris Jr., Kevin McCullar Jr., and K.J. Adams Jr. This has once again led to Kansas being regarded as the preseason favorites.
While each team has the opportunity to take control of their destiny in around a month, the preseason has been a time of hope, disappointment, and excitement for Kansas fans. From the announcement of Hunter Dickinson’s decision, the tumultuous five month saga of Arterio Morris, the brief possibility of a Flagg raising in Lawrence next year,1, and the potential upcoming commitment of Rakease Passmore,2 it’s been a true roller coaster of an offseason for Kansas basketball fans. With the season approaching3, it’s time to make some bold and not so bold statistical projections for the upcoming season. Below is what I’m projecting for each Kansas player, a brief description of why I’m projecting this, and at the end a look at my projections this year compared to last year’s numbers.
A brief overview of the abbreviations I’ll be using to avoid typing out words: MPG (minutes per game), PPG (points per game), RPG (rebounds per game), APG (assists per game), BPG (blocks per game), SPG (steals per game), and TPG (turnovers per game). The order will be the same for all of the players to maintain consistency. This can also be found in the chart at the bottom of the article if you prefer to look at a chart.
Dajuan Harris Jr.
34 MPG, 9.8 PPG, 2.3 RPG, 6.6 APG, 0.3 BPG, 2.1 SPG, 1.3 TPG
The leader of the team, it feels like Harris Jr. will average the highest number of minutes this year. Originally this projected number was lower, but with Morris no longer a part of the team, some of the minutes Harris Jr. could have spent resting have to go back to him. His scoring increases compared to last year, while his assist number stays similar. The only reason this doesn’t take a significant jump is it feels like the offense will play through multiple players this year that can create. His steals per game stays over two, which highlights his ability to pressure opposing guards. While expecting similar numbers this year, there is no denying the impact Harris Jr. has on this team on both ends of the court.
Elmarko Jackson
29 MPG, 7.4 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 2.4 APG, 0.5 BPG, 1.8 SPG, 2.3 TPG
Jackson is the immediate beneficiary of the Morris situation. Instead of fighting for minutes with Morris and Timberlake, Jackson will take on an even larger role early in the year. As a player who is widely considered Kansas’ best NBA prospect,4 Jackson was always going to see minutes this year. The biggest question mark for his impact is whether his shooting can provide spacing. On defense, he’ll be expected to pressure guards similar to Harris Jr. As a freshman, he’ll need to learn how to limit his fouls and run the offense in order to give Harris Jr. breaks. Jackson is a player who should improve as the season goes along and be an important piece of a deep March and April run.
Kevin McCullar Jr.
32 MPG, 12.5 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 2.8 APG, 0.5 BPG, 2.2 SPG, 1.6 TPG
Listen, the arguments that McCullar Jr. came back to be this year’s Ochai Agbaji or Jalen Wilson are understandable. However, those two didn’t have a transfer of Dickinson’s caliber coming in and were both younger players. McCullar Jr. will still be heavily relied upon, but he won’t provide the offensive punch those two did. While the Arkansas game provided a glimpse of what McCullar Jr. can do when needed, I’m projecting his numbers will end up similar to last year. Defensively, McCullar Jr. has been an elite player, and that shouldn’t change this year as he continues to average over two steals per game.
K.J. Adams Jr.
30 MPG, 12.8 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 1.6 APG, 0.6 BPG, 0.8 SPG, 1.2 TPG
Adams Jr. is tough to pin down this year. He’ll be playing alongside Dickinson, which should give him some more space to move, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Self get him into some sets that allow him to post up smaller players.5 Not having the burden of defending centers should free him up to do some things we didn’t see last year on the defensive end as well. He’s a player whose points could jump higher than I’m projecting. If he somehow developed a jump shot this offseason, then his ceiling gets raised dramatically. His assists per game could also jump if the two man game of Adams Jr. and Dickinson gets rolling. Overall, Adams Jr. is in a position where his numbers could elevate quickly as his role becomes more defined throughout the season.
Hunter Dickinson
32 MPG, 18.4 PPG, 11.2 RPG, 2.4 APG, 1.9 BPG, 0.4 SPG, 2.1 TPG
Dickinson was the prize in the transfer portal, and Self will be excited to have a dominant post player for the first time since Azubuike.6 If Dickinson doesn’t lead this team in scoring this year, either someone made an unexpected major leap (McCullar Jr. or Adams Jr. would seem like the most likely candidates) or something went extremely wrong. While he hasn’t averaged double-digit rebounds previously, it feels like this could be the year where he does. His assists numbers could end up slightly higher if teams start keying on him and he begins to pick them apart with his vision and passing. His block total is probably too high, but Self will work to get him in positions defensively to affect shots around the rim. I have him projected with the second highest turnover average on the team, but that’s mostly due to believing the offense will play through him.
Nick Timberlake
20 MPG, 7.5 PPG, 3.4 RPG, 1.1 APG, 0.2 BPG, 0.5 SPG, 0.8 TPG
Timberlake is another player who benefits from the Morris situation, but probably loses a few minutes with the late commitment of Johnny Furphy. The argument for more minutes would be his experience gives him the edge over Jackson, but some rumblings have indicated that his defense might not be quite good enough to start for Self. Overall, he feels similar to an Isaiah Moss type of statistical player. Moss averaged just over eight points but also played around 25 minutes per game. Timberlake feels like he’ll make a couple of 3s each game and have a few games where he scores around 15 points. He’ll probably be more effective off the bench than as a starter while providing solid and consistent minutes.
Johnny Furphy
12 MPG, 4.3 PPG, 3.2 RPG, 0.7 APG, 0.2 BPG, 0.5 SPG, 0.8 TPG
I honestly don’t know enough and couldn’t find enough about Furphy to write a preview newsletter when he committed. His recruitment blew up over the summer, and his commitment to Kansas came just days after it was said he was staying in the 2024 class. Furphy profiles as a player who will compete hard, make plays defensively, and throw down dunks on people’s heads. While it’s too early to say he’s going to be the next Christian Braun, he does have some similar qualities. He’ll probably see time at the four alongside Dickinson or Adams Jr., but could possibly push up to the three if Self plays bigger lineups to give McCullar and a guard some rest. This projection is mostly based on Furphy’s development and willingness to do whatever it takes to get on the court. Furphy should be able to play a smaller role this season before stepping into a more significant role next year.
Parker Braun
5 MPG, 2.2 PPG, 2.6 RPG, 0.4 APG, 0.5 BPG, 0.2 SPG, 0.6 TPG
Originally I thought Braun would play a Mitch Lightfoot-type of role, around ten minutes per game. Instead, I think that he ends up closer to five minutes per game once it’s said and done. Adams Jr. will probably see some small ball minutes at the five this year, limiting Braun’s minutes. That being said, he could end up closer to ten minutes per game based on fouls, injuries, or if Kansas is as dominant as expected.
Rest of the Bench
6 MPG, 2.2 PPG, 0.7 RPG, 0.8 APG, 0.2 BPG, 0.7 SPG, 0.6 TPG
The rest of the bench includes walk-ons, Zach Clemence, and Jamari McDowell. Ideally, those last two are able to redshirt this year. This would mean that the remaining averages come in blowout wins and early season games.
I’m projecting a jump in most offensive categories, but I also anticipate a defensive improvement in points allowed per game, steals, and blocks. The main factor in my projections is efficiency. The Kansas offense was the 25th most efficient offense at the end of last season according to KenPom with this efficiency rating being boosted by Kansas’ success in transition. The rating felt like it was high at times due to the reliance on Jalen Wilson to carry the team in it’s half-court sets throughout the season.7 The addition of Dickinson will most likely improve Kansas’ half-court offense. This reliance on Wilson also limited assist opportunities in the half-court offense, which is why there is an expected jump in Kansas’ best statistical value from last year. While I believe that the overall tempo of the team will slow down lowering the average number of possessions, I’m projecting a jump in points per game due to the half-court offense’s projected improvement. If things go as planned with Dickinson, this team should be a top ten team in terms of offensive efficiency.
There’s also a projected improvement in most defensive categories. This is due to two main factors. The first was mentioned above with the tempo. As Kansas utilizes more half-court offense rather than forcing transition opportunities, they give the opposing team fewer possessions and opportunities to score. The second reason is switching out Gradey Dick and Jalen Wilson for Elmarko Jackson and Hunter Dickinson. While there have understandably been some questions about Dickinson’s defensive ability, Self has shown his ability to improve the defensive capabilities of centers. The two prime examples of this are Azubuike and McCormack. I’m confident he’ll find a way to limit Dickinson’s weaknesses. As much as Wilson and Dick powered the offense, they were liabilities on the defensive end. Jackson should be a marked improvement over Dick on the defensive end, creating turnovers by pressuring guards rather than intercepting passes. The defense coming off the bench might be questionable, but ideally the surrounding guys in Harris Jr., Jackson, McCullar Jr. and Adams Jr. would be able to maintain the efficiency. Another area that appears due for an increase is blocks. With Dickinson adding size in the paint, the thought is that he can add a couple of blocks each game and deter teams from driving which Kansas was missing last year. Any efficiency improvement would push Kansas into the top ten of defensive efficiency as well. I expect this team to be close to putting both the offensive and defensive efficiency ratings into the top ten becoming the first Kansas team since the 2019-20 season to do so.8
Overall, it’s very easy to get excited about this team and see obvious areas of improvement from last year’s team. Some of the biggest concerns for this team will be the development of depth and freshmen (namely Jackson and Furphy) and the ability to stay healthy. Harris Jr. and McCullar Jr. have histories with injuries, and the lack of depth could become an issue if they can’t stay healthy this year. This is probably the biggest issue with the expected loss of Morris. Instead of having another experienced guard to take minutes from Harris Jr., Jackson will be the backup point guard or McCullar Jr. will have to play out of position (and that’s if McCullar Jr. is healthy enough to play that role).
The expectations of this season are sky high, and the hope is Self can lead them back to the promise land. There are so many reasons to be optimistic heading into this season, and the projections above reflect that. However, there are still a few ways this season could collapse. As a Kansas basketball fan, we’ve been lucky enough to avoid most of these pitfalls when other programs haven’t. Self is the best coach in the country. He landed the transfers he wanted out of the portal this year. He’ll have this team set up for success, and success this season looks like a National Championship.
“It was one of those March days when the sun shines hot and the wind blows cold: when it is summer in the light, and winter in the shade.” - Charles Dickens, Great Expectations
Let’s hope the March (and April) days next year feel more like the light than the shade.
Cooper Flagg would be Kansas’ highest rated recruit since Andrew Wiggins. Long thought to be a Duke lock, it sounded like Self and the staff had made some inroads before the announcement last night that Flagg cancelled his Kansas visit.
Passmore looks like he’s going to shoot up the recruiting rankings in the near future. An uber athletic guard, he locks down defensively and sounds like a perfect Self recruit.
The Puerto Rico trip and preseason exhibition game against Illinois have brought basketball to the forefront even earlier than normal for Kansas fans this year. The former provided an incomplete look at how Kansas might proceed with it’s rotation at the beginning of the year.
This either feels like a significant miscalculation on NBA prognosticators or an interesting outlook for Kansas fans. Jackson’s stock has risen dramatically over the past year, and if he is a lottery pick after this season, that is probably a positive for how the Kansas season progressed.
Self comparing Adams Jr. to Draymond Green after the Missouri game last year indicates that he’ll continue to play a maximized role. “But he’s gonna figure out a way how to impact the game, he’s a lot like a young Draymond, there’s a lot of similarities in the game. I’m not saying he is that, but I see a lot of similarities of what Draymond was when he was young.”
David McCormack was dominant at times, but there were games where it looked like he forgot how to dribble. His inconsistency was frustrating because of how talented he was.
That isn’t an attempt to take anything away from Wilson, he was incredible in those situations through the early part of the Big 12 schedule. Some teams chose to let Kansas attack through him by face-guarding Dick and packing the paint. Either way, there were games were the offense became stagnant (Texas, TCU, and Iowa State all come to mind).
This has happened five times in Self’s tenure at Kansas: 2007-08 (Champions), 2009-10 (Round of 32 - Northern Iowa), 2010-11 (Elite Eight - VCU), 2015-16 (Elite Eight - Villanova), and 2019-20 (COVID Tournament Cancelled). In other words, it could be incredible or it could be one of the most painful endings in the Self era.
Though Jalen Wilson was nothing special as a pre-shot defender, someone (or everyone) will have to demonstrate a heretofore undisclosed ability to attack the defensive glass to make up for his contributions after a shot went up. Dickinson should get a lot of opportunities and one would think KJ Adams has to have potential to be a better defensive rebounder than he's shown the last two seasons, but if those two don't step up there could be a couple frustrating losses to teams that shoot 38% from the floor.