Hold the Door!
An analytical look at the Kansas defense and what has driven its success this year.
Bill Self takes pride in having a team that makes life difficult for opposing offenses. In fact, while the worst they’ve finished in KenPom defensive efficiency ratings in his 22 full seasons at Kansas is 47th,1 the second worst is 24th. In other words: KU has had a Top 25 defense for 21 of the last 22 seasons. Self constantly stresses that the defense drives the offense, which we’ve seen on Kansas teams that are more effective in transition than running a half court offense. This year, the team has stayed in the Top 15 of the KenPom rankings (currently 14th) despite the lack of a traditional rim protector. Thanks to Self, the team continues to play defense that lines up with the standards we’ve seen over the past two decades.
In the last few weeks, we’ve seen Self make adjustments on ball-screen defense within games (the Baylor game stands out as one where they went from switching every screen to fighting through them),2 and the versatility of the defenders when KJ Adams is playing as the 5 has been one of the benefits to playing small. His ability to switch onto guards was on full display last year in the NCAA Tournament and has carried into this year when we see players try to attack him off the dribble. One downside is his lack of size, which has been apparent in games where he’s had matchups against bigger players down low. This is where Ernest Udeh Jr. can create a more traditional defensive set for Kansas, and Self could be inclined to encourage the team to fight through screens more consistently. This can be an issue when communication breaks down between the players, but this also feels like it’s improved over the last few weeks. Overall, outside of a couple of games, this team seems to have been locked in defensively all year, which will give them the opportunity for a tournament run.
Where has this team found success defensively, and where have teams had success attacking?
This chart shows where KU stands in comparison to all other Division I teams based on shooting percentage in specific areas. Despite the constant commentary that Kansas doesn’t have a traditional big man, teams shoot worse in the paint against them than the average team. Because Adams and Kevin McCullar are athletic players who constantly challenge shots, it does make some sense; however, it’s also likely that this is driving the high percentage shooting in the right corner. As the player in position to play help defense steps in to stop a driver using his right hand, they leave their man open in the corner. The Division I average for 3s in the right corner is 36.3%; teams shoot 48.1% against Kansas. Could some of that be bad luck? Sure. Is it also probably a product of defenders having to help off on drivers leaving opposing shooters open in the corners? Probably. As long as teams are shooting a low percentage in the paint, the corner 3 might be something Self is willing to give up two to three times a game. If teams start concentrating on getting their shooters in these positions and the volume jumps enough, Kansas might have to make adjustments to how they’re helping on drivers in those situations.
The fact that this Kansas team forces teams to shoot poorly in the paint is even more critical due to the fact that they give up more two point attempts than most teams, especially over the past 10 games. This could be due to the types of teams they are playing or a change in defensive concepts leading KU to run players off the 3 point line. As long as they continue to hold teams to a low shooting percentage in the paint, the volume of 2 point field goals shouldn’t be a concern. To push the point even further, if Kansas can force teams to shoot two point field goals that are outside of the paint, they are following what analytics support to be the most effective way to play defense.
One area that has improved over recent games is the number of putbacks allowed and putback percentage. We saw a concerted effort by this team to crash the defensive boards against Kentucky with some carryover of that effort in the games since. That is supported by the numbers and shows an area of weakness not necessarily becoming a strength but becoming an area that might not be the downfall of this team in the tournament. Kansas has given up 60 offensive rebounds in their five losses, which averages out to an extra 12 possessions per game. When you are giving teams that many extra possessions, it’s going to be tough to come out on top against good teams.
Compared to the Big 12, KU stands out in a positive light in a few areas. In effective field-goal percentage, turnover percentage, steal percentage, and block percentage, Kansas ranks above average while opponents rank below average. This shows areas where they are effective both offensively and defensively in these areas, which is often a winning formula.
One area that surprised me was the block percentage chart. While there isn’t one player who consistently racks up blocks in games, this team has a few players that have shown the ability to block shots. Five players (Adams, Zuby Ejofer, McCullar, Udeh, and Jalen Wilson) all average over 0.5 blocks a game.3 This indicates a team effort in challenging and affecting shots instead of being reliant on one player.4 On the offensive side, this team has their shots swatted at a lower rate than a majority of other teams in the league. Being able to avoid shot blockers could be vital when playing bigger teams in the NCAA Tournament, especially when point guard Dajuan Harris is being aggressive. Just as important is the ability of the wings and bigs to challenge shots and make things difficult for other teams. As we see from five players averaging a block every two games, this team has players who are willing and able to force teams into tough shots.
The other area I wanted to dive into is the steal percentage. Earlier in the year, the commentators would frequently bring up Harris’ assist-to-turnover ratio, as it was outstanding. As the year has progressed, it has slightly dropped but no one should be fooled: Harris is elite at protecting the ball and setting up teammates. It also helps when you are playing with experienced and/or smart basketball players. With Gradey Dick, Wilson, and McCullar as the other primary ball-handlers, Kansas has four players who understand the effect a steal can have on a game and work to avoid them on the offensive end. It is a loss of possession and can often lead to fast break opportunities for the other team. The positive thing for this team is that their defense is often leading to these opportunities for themselves. Kansas has three players in the top ten in steals in the Big 12: McCullar (second, 2.2 steals per game), Harris (third, 1.9), and Dick (tenth, 1.5). By having a high percentage of steals from three players who can handle the ball, this team is able to get easy buckets in transition opportunities (1.39 points per transition opportunity). Since the half-court offense can grow stagnant at times, these points can help Kansas avoid the five-minute scoreless droughts we’ve seen a few times this year. This will be especially important in tournament games where going five minutes without scoring can end your season.
Continuing to limit second-chance opportunities, forcing teams to shoot poorly at the rim, and gaining extra possessions from steals will be vital in the chase for the league crown and beyond. These defensive trends all help indicate that Kansas will be in a positive position when it comes to matchups that can be decided by only a few possessions over the next month. Replicating success is easier than creating it. While defense probably won’t be what this team is remembered for especially since Self’s teams are usually ranked even higher in KenPom’s efficiency rankings,5 it can help this team become remembered for being the back-to-back champions.
This was the 2018 team which still made a run to the Final Four.
It will be interesting to see how the defense handles this Saturday in the rematch.
Harris and Zach Clemence are at 0.4 blocks per game.
I’m not saying this team wouldn’t love to have Jeff Withey behind them, but for a team that doesn’t start a player taller than 6’7, seeing a team effort here is important.
Ten of Self’s Kansas teams have ended the season in the top ten of KenPom’s defensive efficiency rankings.