Take Me Back to the Islands

A disastrous turn of events Saturday has Kansas' arrow pointing down heading into the postseason. Can we go back to November when the season was full of hope?

Bill Self said that he expects Kevin McCullar and Hunter Dickinson to miss the Big 12 Conference Tournament but play in the NCAA Tournament. Whether that is posturing to ensure Kansas’ seed isn’t affected too much due to the injuries or the full truth is something we won’t know for a couple of weeks. Either way, it’s positive information for Kansas fans and something that was announced after this newsletter was completed.

On their 2009 album Post Electric Blues, the Scottish band Idlewild released a song titled “Take Me Back to the Islands.” In a strange way, the lyrics are perfect encapsulation for the way some Kansas fans are feeling after the regular season ended with a disaster. If anyone had said in November that before the postseason even began Kansas fans would be reminiscing about an early season tournament where Kansas was run off the floor by Marquette, they would have been called crazy. The team’s response against Tennessee provided hope that this team was going to pull together and live up to their expectations. They did for the next month in games against Connecticut and Missouri, but there were also some yellow flags in games against Indiana and Yale. Unfortunately, it all came off the rails during Kansas’ worst conference run in over 20 years.

Not only did the team look disengaged and lifeless from the opening tip against Houston, but Hunter Dickinson, the team’s best player, left the game with 11:08 remaining with what was later announced as a dislocated shoulder. It’s easy to look back and question why he was still on the floor with 11 minutes left in a game that was for all intents and purposes over, but the lack of depth with this team finally caused a collapse with Kansas not having enough players to pull all of the starters until the walk-ons were sent in around the 4:00 minute mark. Either way, Kansas will be working either without Dickinson or with a limited Dickinson the rest of the season. Realistically, Kansas fans should be prepared for the former.

“There are times to act and times to stand back and time to show what’s needed to rely on.”

One of Self’s most recognized traits is his ability to elevate players and rosters that appear overmatched. That’s what makes this season so jarring. The preseason number one team had roster construction flaws that are due in part to Self’s decisions as well as a few things that ended up being out of his control. Here are some of the pieces that cause the puzzle to fall apart:

• The decision to bring in Arterio Morris was divisive from the beginning. Morris immediately showed his character and had to be removed from the team. You can argue that Self and Kansas might not have taken him if the NCAA hadn’t ruled the way they did regarding two-time transfers (the reversal in December penalized teams who trusted the NCAA’s determination), but the truth of the matter is Self took a chance on a player with a murky past. That decision ultimately crippled this team.

• Nick Timberlake’s inexplicable inability to make a significant positive impact this season. Timberlake felt like a perfect addition to the team when he committed last April, and his recruitment came down to Kansas and Connecticut. He shot lights out at Towson and showed an offensive game that felt like it would translate at a higher level. Self (and Hurley) thought he could be an important piece to a championship contender, and his lack of production this season left a hole in the roster.

• Elmarko Jackson needed additional time to adjust to the college game but was forced into a larger role earlier than expected due to the two previous issues. Jackson still makes freshman mistakes multiple times a game, but he has also shown flashes over the last few weeks of his upside. In a normal Kansas season, Jackson’s development would be a nice addition off the bench. This season, it didn’t reach the levels the team needed from their only five star freshman.

• Parker Braun is the only backup big this season. Losing Ernest Udeh and Zuby Ejofer was painful from a vibes perspective, but it also felt like if one had stayed, they would have been an ideal backup for Dickinson. You can’t blame either for not wanting to come off the bench for two more seasons. Instead, Self brought in Braun to play the Mitch Lightfoot role, only he hasn’t been as consistent of a safety net. His athleticism is obvious when he’s catching alley-oops, but it doesn’t translate to rebounding or protecting the rim. That’s where Lightfoot impacted the game, and it’s an obvious issue when Braun is on the court.

• Self is working with scholarship reductions this season and one of the next two.¹ The decision to use one this season to redshirt Zach Clemence feels like a misstep. While it’s difficult to convince players to come and play limited minutes for a season, there was probably at least one player in the portal who would have been willing to say they played for Kansas in return for being an additional body off the bench.

• There are no doubts that Self will correct some if not all of the issues with this year’s roster through recruiting and the portal. He’s actively recruited high school players with high levels of athleticism in Labaron Philon, Flory Bidunga, and Rakease Passmore, and Kansas is considered the leader for five-star shooter Liam McNeeley after his decommitment from Indiana,. Self will likely go to the portal for another guard to play alongside Harris, and that will probably just be the tip of the iceberg. Expect another offseason with a major roster shakeup.

You can tell how frustrated Self has been throughout the season, having more technicals this season than any season in his career on top of his first ejection since 1999. Part of this can likely be attributed to how his experienced players have been playing, but part of it is likely due to his frustration with himself in terms of the roster. At this point of the season, there’s nothing that can be done to change it. There have been times this season where he’s been resigned to sitting on the bench while a game plays out without intervention. Self has always had an innate sense of how to handle specific players and teams, but it feels like he’s been at a loss more frequently this season than previous seasons.

“With your sense of dislocation, you make the perfect traveling companion.”

The big news from the Houston game was that Dickinson dislocated his shoulder. While not confirmed, it’s likely that he’s out for the rest of the season barring a deep run in the NCAA Tournament from Kansas. Losing your best player this close to the NCAA Tournament isn’t good for any team, but for a Kansas team that relies on Dickinson to both get easy baskets and clean up on the boards, it’s a disaster. It’s reminiscent to the impact Udoke Azubuike’s injury had on the 2018-19 team; however, that happened at the start of conference play, giving that team even more time to figure out how to play without him. That team got run out of the gym by Auburn in the Round of 32. There is only one solution to this year’s team that could lead to any form of tournament success: play K.J. Adams at the five.

Adams is an undersized five, and it was a major issue for last season’s team. It was rumored that Adams’ unselfishness last season was a main reason why Kansas didn’t push harder for a player like Grant Nelson or Harrison Ingram in the portal last season. He might have felt owed for sacrificing positionally for last year’s team. His desire to not play the five or come off the bench might have limited Kansas when trying to pull players out of the portal. Adams has been rewarded with a full season of playing as the four beside one of the best passing big men in the country. He’s shown some ability to put the ball on the floor but is at his best when he is cutting and finishing at the rim. His jump shot didn’t develop in the offseason and that’s limited the offense’s spacing this season. It’s time to be unselfish and step back into the five role for the rest of the season. There is another major issue with this, though.

Kansas has only played 28 possessions with Adams as the five this season. While it wouldn’t be an unknown for Dajuan Harris, Kevin McCullar, and Adams, there are three players who haven’t played with Adams at the five. You could make an argument that the offense could open up without Dickinson and Adams playing together, but it would also force the entire team to place a greater emphasis on rebounding. This limits transition opportunities which you would want for this group since they don’t have a player who creates their own shot on a consistent basis. That being said, it’s not the worst thing in the world to have a guard like Harris who reads pick-and-rolls well to play alongside three players who can shoot the ball in Furphy, McCullar, and Timberlake. There’s definitely a world where this offense finds success, but the team could somehow have even more variability without Dickinson.

Playing Adams at the five could help the pick-and-roll defense, but losing someone Dickinson’s size opens up space for opposing offenses. While Dickinson isn’t the quickest player, just seeing someone of his size can be a deterrent for opponents and limit passing windows. While Kansas could see more interchangeability on the perimeter, they’ll be more susceptible to teams who crash the offensive glass and have a true post presence.

There are pros and cons to playing smaller, but that’s also assuming you’re replacing an average player. Losing an All-American the last week of the regular season is a brutal blow to any team, but Dickinson was the most stable piece of this Kansas team. At the same time, Kansas has to adjust quickly, and this is the change that makes the most sense.

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To attempt to explain how important Dickinson is to this team, it’s helpful to highlight where he stands nationally. Within the conference, he most likely would have been runner-up for the player of the year behind Jamal Shead and was named First Team All Big 12. He’s been shortlisted for the Kareem Abdul-Jabbar Center of the Year Award and is named on most media lists for national All-American teams. Advanced Metric sites value him as a top 20 player in the country, with Bart Torvik currently ranking him at 17th in the nation (and highest from the Big 12) and Evan Miya has him at 18th in the nation (and fourth in the Big 12).

According to Synergy, he ranks in the 93rd percentile on Post-Up opportunities, which is good for 95th in the country.

Without him, Kansas is unlikely to utilize post-ups as frequently. This is their fifth most frequent play type and something Kansas utilizes on 10.8 percent of their possessions which is in the 86th percentile for frequency. To put this in perspective, Kansas only finished possessions with 108 post-ups last season per Synergy. Dickinson alone is at 172 with the rest of the team on pace to end up around 108 total. Without Dickinson in the lineup, Kansas will most likely adjust to having McCullar post up his man when he has a mismatch.

Another benefit that Dickinson provides for Kansas is his ability to draw fouls. This helps limit opponents interior games and often takes opponents’ top rebounders out of games. Kansas will have to find new ways to draw fouls, which will most likely come from attacking defenders in pick-and-rolls. This team hasn’t really shown a propensity or willingness to attack teams off the dribble this year. The offense will shift to this, and the change could actually benefit players like Timberlake and Jackson who will be able to play in a more free-flowing offense than what we’ve seen with Adams and Dickinson both on the court.

“A crowded world will always seem emptier to me when I take the boat out.”

Is it time to give up on this team? If Dickinson is out, it likely changes the expectations for this team. Making it out of the first weekend of the tournament should probably be considered a successful postseason run at this point, which is still extremely possible for this team depending on matchups. It’s unclear if McCullar will play in the Big 12 Tournament, but it appears Kansas has dropped down to the four seed line. If they lose the opening game to Cincinnati or West Virginia on Wednesday evening, they could drop to a five seed. Either way, barring two wins in Kansas City this week, Kansas will enter the tournament with their lowest seed since 2019 (also a four seed) and possibly their lowest since they 2000 season when they were an eight seed.

All-in-all the Houston game was a worst case scenario for Kansas after a much-needed win over K-State on Tuesday. It felt like the team had turned the hypothetical corner they’ve been teasing us with the entire conference schedule. Saturday was always going to be a tough matchup against one of the best teams in the country out for revenge after taking their worst loss to Kansas a month earlier. Instead it turned into a nightmare for Kansas fans. Hopefully Kansas will give us a few more weeks of hope this season, but if they don’t, Self and the players will need to take a look in the mirror this offseason to determine how they head into next season. For maybe only the third time since Self became the Kansas coach, the team feels as though it’s in a worse position heading into the postseason than it did heading into January. While that speaks to his success, it makes the issues this season more glaring. Take me back to the islands when there was nothing but hope.

1. Kansas lost three scholarships over three seasons. They chose not to use two of them this season, which means they have to give up one scholarship in one of the next two seasons.